Baltimore Orioles Opening Day Preview + Team Award Predictions - Ep. 6

In today's episode, the crew shares their Orioles preseason awards, along with their opening day predictions & preview. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:28

Yo yo yo, what is going on, ladies and gentlemen? Welcome back to Orioles Theory, your number one one-stop shop for all things. Baltimore Orioles. I am the co-host and creator of Oz Theory, Tyler Barbrush. Join with me is my right hand man, partner in crime, Jake Orne. And we also got Justin Lunenfell joining us shortly here in a little bit. We got a lot to dive into today, as you can see on the right side, such as our Baltimore Orioles Award predictions and our opening day preview. But before we dive into that stuff, Jake, it's been a little bit of a while, brother. You're back in home, back in the studio. Welcome back on the show. We missed you. How you doing?

SPEAKER_03 1:15

Good, man. Good. Work's been really busy. They got me traveling all over the place. But um, all right. For the foreseeable future, I will be stuck in Baltimore watching these O's. Yeah, yeah, no, I'm I'm definitely um I'm definitely thrilled, you know. Traveling across the country is cool and all, and you know, for the first couple of days, exploring new areas, you know, getting a piece of of their culture, their town. But after that, it's just boring, dude. After you do everything, it's like, now what do I do? So you just sit and watch, just watching, I was just watching March Madness in my hotel room by myself for the past week and a half. So but it's yeah, it's good to be back, man. It's good to see your face. Uh good to talk to you, good to be back on here, man. Missed everybody, missed the audience, missed everything. So um there we go. I just gotta get back in the swing of things, but it shouldn't take long. And uh I'm excited to talk about some uh some O's today.

SPEAKER_01 2:11

You're a natural Jake, and uh I know when when people say personality higher, that's exactly what Jake Orin was. So it's it's very nice to have Jake back in the booth with us, or I guess back in the online booth, punch it. But uh yeah, feeling really, really good. We have a fun episode planned for you guys, like I previously said. We're gonna give our Baltimore Orioles Award predictions, and my camera is frozen. That's not good. Can you hear me, Jake? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. You can hear me? My camera's just frozen. I can hear you. All right, all right, hold on one second. I gotta get this camera fixed. Give me a second, people. Jake, carry the boats real quick. Sure, sure, sure.

SPEAKER_03 2:54

All right, folks, we are about 24 hours away from the greatest day in sports entertainment history. Opening day, Orioles opening day. I know we got games going on tonight on Netflix, Giants, Yankees, blah, blah, blah. No one wants to watch that. The real games start at 3.05 Thursday afternoon at Camden Yards. Be there, be square. This guy right here to my right, he's a little square, he won't be there.

SPEAKER_01 3:25

Dude, come on now. You see this tassel, you see this tassel back here. Here, let me bring the camera.

unknown 3:32

All right.

SPEAKER_01 3:33

This is my tassel and my graduation cap. It's because I'm graduating college in two months. I've bigger and better fish to fry. Justin Lunenfeld, same boat as me. We're just two guys trying to graduate college, okay? Like, he's got our well, he not graduate college, but I'm trying to graduate college. And, you know, I have other things to worry about, like getting a job and like graduating. So, so if it can I'm just giving you a hard time, it's important, it's important.

SPEAKER_03 4:04

Keep your head on the swivel.

SPEAKER_01 4:05

You know, I wish I could make opening day, but sadly I can't. And I guess.

SPEAKER_03 4:09

Well, if the people think about baseball, Tyler, there's 162. So that is true.

SPEAKER_01 4:14

81 more games that can be.

SPEAKER_03 4:17

I'm not worried about it.

SPEAKER_01 4:19

All right. Well, I know I'll be there, that's for damn sure. And we will be there.

SPEAKER_03 4:22

Yeah, yeah, but we'll hit it up.

SPEAKER_01 4:25

Like like Jake was saying, you don't really want to watch the game that's going on tonight against the Yankees and the Giants now. To be quite real with you, I'm 1,000% gonna watch that game. Oh, I'll be watching a fanatic. But I'll be hate watching yo Giants, but the real game is tomorrow at 3.05. That is the Baltimore Orioles the Minnesota Twins in Camden Yards with Trevor Rogers on the mound. Trevor Rogers versus Joe Ryan. We're gonna dive into that opening day stuff later, but before we do that, we have to break down our Baltimore Orioles predictions. I have a few categories here. We have your MVP, so it's like team awards, by the way, if you didn't pick that up by now. You have your team MVP, your team Cy Young, your team rookie of the year, your silver slugger, your gold glove, your most improved slash breakout player, and your reliever of the year. We're gonna go down the list, share hours for Cy Young. I I'm doing something a little bit different. I'm actually gonna rank the rotation here. Um, then obviously, number one is my Cy Young, but I want to rank the rotation here. But let's start off with MVP. Um Jake, I feel like we have a pretty good idea of who this guy is. It might be unanimous, Tyler.

SPEAKER_03 5:46

It might be.

SPEAKER_01 5:48

Does his does his number rhyme with boo uh glue?

SPEAKER_03 5:55

It does, and it's probably the same man that was just competing for the great country of the US of A? Possibly.

SPEAKER_01 6:03

Yeah, possibly. Is he uh is he from Alabama? He is. Did he just get engaged? Married? Yeah, I think. He did, he did.

SPEAKER_03 6:15

Okay, so a couple months ago. Wow.

SPEAKER_01 6:18

Well, congratulations to this beautiful specimen because his name is Gunnar Henderson, and if you don't know him by now, he is Jake and Ice pick to win Oriel's MVP this year. Gunner is a one-of-a-kind talent, and that was on full display during the World Baseball Classic. Dude has insane power, and he displayed that hitting what two home runs, one of them in the game against the Dominican Republic, one of the coolest moments of Gunner's young career. Uh, hit two home runs, I think had maybe four or five RBIs, led the team in slugging percentage, if I'm not mistaken. Gunner had a great world baseball classic, but a lot of people seem to discredit him after the year that he had last year, but he still posted a 5.5 war, even though he had a 787 OPS. That's not very Gunner Henderson like, but people seem to forget that in 2024 he was right there with Aaron Judge in the American League MVP race. And that uh talent, that skill, it just doesn't go away. And uh myself, along with Jake, we're banky on Gunner to have a big bounce back year. I think he's a great defender. People underestimate his defense all the time. They say, oh, he can't stick at shortstop, he's a better third baseman. And while some people could agree with you, I think that a big issue with the biggest issue with Gunner is his throwing accuracy, not his ability to play second. It's just his accuracy. His glove, fantastic. That guy can get a glove in the mitt, or that guy can get a ball in the mid of any single ball up the middle to his right, left, behind him, wherever it is, the ball will find Gunner's mitt. And it is a little bit upsetting seeing people be like, oh yeah, he's not on the same tier as Bobby Witt as Francisco Landor. It's like, come on, man. He has been on that same tier for the past three seasons now. And it's and and it's time that people start to realize how good of a player this guy actually is. Uh, Jake, take it away with your Gunnar Henderson thoughts. I'll have to fix my camera once again. Don't know why he keeps on.

SPEAKER_03 8:32

Yeah, you're good. You're good. I mean, what's there's not really much to say about Gunner. I mean, we know what the kid is. He is the driving force, he is the franchise cornerstone of the Baltimore Orioles. I mean, you know, they're putting him on the big new billboard now. And um, look, it was last year a down year, absolutely, stat-wise. But let me tell you something, uh ladies and gentlemen. Nothing about this is substantial. Stats are an underlining statement. Look, the kid is a natural on the ball field. Okay, he plays with what I like to call enthusiasm. Uh, and that's the battle.

SPEAKER_01 9:14

Say that again. Say that again. What's it called?

SPEAKER_03 9:17

Enthusiasm. What did I how did I pronounce that? Was that wrong? No, no, no, you said enthusiasm. Because I I over-pronounced, I overpronounced. You overpronounced. Yeah, you're good. I give it a shit. But no, on a serious note, I mean, look, yeah, down year stats-wise, and I think that something had to do with how the Orioles were playing. I think, I think generally he was playing with a chip on his shoulder that he had to carry the load of a struggling team that had championship aspirations. And when those aspirations kind of fell flat, I think the whole team kind of fell flat. And that's not just on Gunner, that's a lot of people last year, Kowser, Adley. And you know, injuries also happen that affected his play as well. But that happens to a lot of baseball players. It's a long season, it's a grind. And, you know, we know it as Orioles fans best. The best ability is availability, and Gunner has been there for a lot of his career, so that we are very grateful for. Um, coming into 2026, I expect stat sheets to be litten up. And I'm not, I'm one of those guys, I don't need my shortstop hitting 40 home runs, 35 home runs. Um, now I do think Gunner reaches that 35 mark this year. I'm for Gunner, I'm looking more on two things batting average. I want I want his average to be like 285 to 300.

SPEAKER_01 10:51

Oh, and it and it will be.

SPEAKER_03 10:53

And it will. And I'm keen on I want this is for the whole team, but we're talking about Gunner, so specifically on Gunner, I want to be, I want him uh to run more, more stolen bases. I'm looking for a 30-30 year, maybe a 40-40 year. Um, I just think he has the speed, he has the athleticism, and let the kid do what he wants. I mean, he is a freak athlete, and I think if you can open it up and let the kid just play ball, I think we're in for a wild ride, and I do predict that he will lead the Orioles to a playoff berth this year.

SPEAKER_01 11:30

All right, Jay Gorin heard it here first. I apologize for my poor lack of quality. My camera keeps on going out, so now I had to resort to another one, and now it seems like this one is extremely, extremely dark. Ooh, what are your thoughts on this background?

SPEAKER_03 11:49

That's pretty sick. What is that?

SPEAKER_01 11:51

I don't know. How about this one?

SPEAKER_03 11:53

That's worse.

SPEAKER_01 11:56

What if I uh okay? You know what? I gotta stay on topic here. You know what? This is actually gonna be my uh background. Oh yeah. That's what that one, yeah. Gunner and Abley. All right, that's what it's gonna be today until I can fix my uh my camera. But yes, Gunnar Henderson is due for a huge year, and he is Jake Orin and I's team MVP. Moving down to Cy Young. Um, I believe it'll be Kyle Bradish. I think that that he is the pitcher that is due the most for a breakout season. Now, with that being said, I think that there are many guys that could win it because this rotation is so insanely deep that anyone could have a breakout season or a bounce back season. Like I would not be surprised if Shane Boss had a breakout season, but also if Zach Efflin had a bounce back season. So, for that reason, I'm gonna rank my players in the rotation in order based off how I think they're gonna perform in 2025. And Jake, let me know what you think. Sure. First off, I got Kyle Bradish, kind of self-explanatory, one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Uh, secondly, I got Zach Efflin. A lot of people have been low on Efflin so far, um, especially because of the way that he ended 2025 with his injury, and he had like a 5'8 ERA last year, only made like 14 starts. People forget though that he was the Orioles' opening day starter last year, and he went six innings of two run ball against the former American League champions. And the Oriol won that game because Efflin not only had a great start, but the offense looked great. But Efflin was the guy for us heading into last season. What has changed? Now, if you want to make excuses for why Kyle Bradish can be so good because of his injuries, if you want to make an excuse for his injury history there, then make an excuse for Zach Efflin and say, all right, last year was injury riddled. If Efflin can turn it up to a 2024 version that he was when he came over to Baltimore with a 2-5 ERA, that is one of our best pitchers in not only our rotation, but in the American League. I think Efflin is going to have a bounce back year look right in spring training too. Number three, now this is where you're gonna get a little bit confused. I was between Shane Balls and Trevor Rogers, but I ultimately went with T Rodge. Just because if I had T Rodge at four, I feel like I would have been attacked a lot for it. I'm not gonna lie, I've been a massive Trevor Rogers supporter, enjoyer. I think he's a great pitcher. But that's that spring training game that he had against the Netherlands really concerned me. I'm not gonna lie. So I want to see how he looks tomorrow. I think he'll look fine tomorrow. The Twins don't hit lefties very well, but I'm going to be heavily monitoring Trevor Rogers' whatever you want to call it, development or uh uh uh production throughout the season. I want to look at his advanced numbers, see if his fastball is still, you know, increasing in velocity, see if his changeup is still one of the better pitches to use against righties in baseball. There are a lot of things that I'm gonna be monitoring with T-Raj, but I got him at three for now. Number four, I got Shane Boz. That was a toss-up. I think Boz is gonna be fantastic. But in order for you to understand the type of pitcher that Boz is, you've got to be okay with walking three batters every nine innings. That's the type of player that Boz is. Maybe even more, but he will strike out 11 of them. And then five, I got Chris Bassett, just a floor raiser, Jake, like we talked about when we first signed him. Chris Bassett is the ultimate floor raiser. So to recap, Orioles' rotation, in my opinion, will be ordered from best to worst at the end of the year. Kyle Bradish, Zach Efflin, Trevor Rogers, Shane Boz, Chris Bassett. Take it away, Jake.

SPEAKER_03 16:04

Yeah, I mean, I think everything was great there, except I have Trevor being the Cy Young. Not even just for the Orioles, for the league. Wow. The league. Wow. Look, look, look, look, look. That's hot. People will saw, people will say, they'll be talking. Bias, bias. You're from Baltimore. You're an Orioles fan. All true. All true. But let's dive a little bit deeper. Look, the way he pitched last year was some of the best pitching I've seen from an Orioles who maybe even better than Corbin was for us for that one year. Now that's crazy.

SPEAKER_01 16:46

Corbin's so good that year.

SPEAKER_03 16:48

I know.

SPEAKER_01 16:48

I know. That's a really high, that's a really high bar.

SPEAKER_03 16:53

Look, when you were pitching like that, he got two Cy Young votes last year. I mean, why can't if if you can not duplicate, but even if you get it with a little bit worse and get that ERA to like a a 2, 2.1, but you're still you're still 16 and 1. I know you don't people are uh wins aren't uh a stat for a pitcher. I I disagree. I I really do. I think uh a good pitcher puts his team in a position to win the game, and I think wins should be a stat for the pitcher, seeing as how he's the one leading into battle for the first five, six, seven innings. I think if a good pitcher is out there, he stacks wins. Trevor Stacks wins last year, the ERA was great, didn't put guys on, had some nasty stuff, like you said. The fastball was good, the off speeds were good. I think if he can not even duplicate, just kind of had the same year as last year. I really do think that, and we we'll need a down year from Scoobyl, we'll need a down year from a couple other people. We'll need a lot of down years. Yeah, but I mean, look, it's not the craziest thing I've ever said, and I can definitely see it being a possibility. Now, for strictly for just the O's, I mean, him and Kyle Bradish were right up there for me. I had to think about it a little bit with Kyle's injury history and Trevor getting the nod on opening day. I don't think it really means all that much. Having a one-two punch, it's it's a great problem to have like that. Yeah, I do see him having the confidence, knowing, hey, this is my team, my rotation. I am the guy that says, hey, you're getting the nod game one. So I think that confidence is gonna be a huge booster for him. I think he's not gonna change things up from last year, know what works, and I think that Netherlands game, I think he was just working on some stuff. That's what spring training is. That's what these expedition games are for. Working on some stuff, working out the kinks, you know, maybe throwing some things you don't really want to throw, but let's just see what it does. Oh, nope, just gave up a three-run shot, don't like that, never gonna throw that pitch again. That's what spring training is. All it is get out of spring training healthy. That's all that matters to me. He has, most of the team has, and I think he will be our best pitcher this year.

SPEAKER_01 19:22

Yeah, there's well said, Jake. I mean, there's there's no doubt that spring training is yeah, it's it's all exhibition games. You have to work on the stuff that you want to see if it's gonna, you know, shape up the way that you want it to shape up, especially.

SPEAKER_03 19:37

I mean, Ryan Helsley's been working on that slider. He never he just hardly ever throws a slider, but now he's been splitter, yes, excuse me. The split. Yeah, and uh look, he's been he he hardly ever throws that. Now he gets to the Orioles and they're like, try this out, it's effective. So I bet you know he's gonna start throwing that pitch more in some games. Why do we know about that? The expedition spring training, it's working now trains rolling, the expeditions. Uh you mean the exhibitions? No, the I know what I said, the exp expeditions. Like we're going on like an expedition. Like the mission. Oh, okay. Okay, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 20:14

I was gonna use it in a in a sentence, like we're going on an expig on an expedition to mission. Africa. Oh, interesting. All right, you're you're wow me today, Jake. I don't know what this is, but you're really impressing me. I don't know if it's better.

SPEAKER_03 20:28

I'm excited. Opening day. I can smell it, dude. I'll be in pickles at 9 a.m.

SPEAKER_01 20:34

Oh, feels great. Oh, feels great. Well, all right, Trevor Rogers and Cal Bradish, our Saiyoung votes. When we come back, we will break down our rookie of the year and Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Stick right with us. We got a word from our sponsor, O Squared Residential Design. Just like we build winning sports content, O Squared builds winning kitchens and bathrooms. They're a woman-owned, family operated company right here in the state of Maryland. Excellence in every square inch. Check them out at OSquaredesign.com. That's osquaredesign.com. O for the O's. That's a new one. I just came up with that. All right. Gonna try and wrap up uh with these predictions or uh projections, awards, whatever you want to call it, fairly quickly now, uh, because we do have Justin waiting for us. We want to hop into our opening day uh preview. Rookie of the year. I got two here. Obviously, the one that you could say is Samuel Bessiah, right? I mean, it's that's a no brainer. He's, I think, fourth or fifth best rookie of the year odds to actually win the award. Um, he's looked like an absolute animal in spring training. Looks like everything that Baltimore has wanted him to be and more. Um, if that's the type of player that you get this season, the Orioles are gonna win the World Series. I'm being so serious with you. Now that's not the player that you're gonna get because it is spring training, but Sayo could be really freaking good. Like one of the better players in all of baseball when it's all said and done. That's the type of potential this guy has. Now, if he can just get on base at a higher rate, right? The power is there. If he can get on base at a higher rate, play some better defense, especially at catcher, there's no reason as to why he couldn't win the actual rookie of the year award. But I think Alonzo is obviously gonna hit 20 home runs this year, driving 60 to 80 RBIs, play 120 games at catcher, maybe 50 games at first base. He will be a fantastic player for Baltimore. But my second player is a player that actually got called up to the opening day roster today, and that's Anthony Nunez. Uh, if you guys forget, Oriol's got Nunez in the Cedric in the Cedric Mullins trade in July. Uh, and he was one of the players that we got back in return. And Nunez, oh God, can that guy throw the baseball? He's got some nasty stuff. He has some nasty stuff, Jake. He has some serious uh velocity on his arm. 100 mile per hour fastball. That guy can sling it. Um, I think Nunez, honestly, if Ryan Helsley wasn't here, he'd be the closer at the end of the year for Baltimore. Reminds me a lot of the Felix Bautista situation. You remember when Jorge Lopez and Felix Bautista were both getting cl uh saves in like 2022? And it was like, all right, like this Felix could is really good. When are we gonna give the torch to him? And now it's like, all right, maybe Anthony Nunez can be that guy for Baltimore here. But yeah, love what Anthony Nunez provides. Uh, he's my dark horse to uh be the Orioles rookie of the year. Jake, who you got?

SPEAKER_03 23:49

Yeah, quick and easy. It's gonna be Samuel. Uh, I mean, he's RADO's top prospect, um, big power bat, uh, flexibility with catcher, first base. Um, I just uh a lot of tools you like. I every time I look at him swing a bat, make contact, I just get um Alvarez vibes. Yeah, I just get Alvarez vibes. So um it's it's gonna be Alvarez Jordan.

SPEAKER_01 24:20

Your Dawn Alvarez vibes. I was like Francisco Alvarez vibes. No, no, no, it is your Dawn Alvarez vibes.

SPEAKER_03 24:28

Wow, Jordan Do you not that home run in uh against Boston? That swing and just how we like cut it halfway, that inside pitch, and just pulled that thing, dude. It looked exactly like Jordan. I was like, I was like, whoa. And they had the same power. I mean, Jordan might be a little bit bigger, but yeah, dude. I if if we can if if Samuel can get kind of like just half that that bat uh that batting ability, which that's a good player, another extension coming up soon.

SPEAKER_01 25:06

Yeah, all right, I like that. Yordon Alvarez, you're here first, Samuel Basaya. Wow, that's a good one. All right, gold glove. Actually, no, silver slugger, excuse me. You you paid this guy 155 million to drive in RBIs, and when you think of a silver slugger, it's a it's a guy that hits a lot of home runs and drives in a lot of RBIs, and that's exactly what Pete Alonso is gonna do for Baltimore. I don't think I have to explain it any further than that, outside of the fact that this guy is probably gonna hit 40 home runs, driving 110 to 130 RBIs, and he's gonna make us fans in Baltimore very, very happy. Pete Alonzo is my Baltimore Orioles silver slugger of the year. Jake?

SPEAKER_03 25:44

Yep, right on par with me as well. I don't really think it's a competition. I mean, hopefully it's a competition. That means we have several people uh popping off here. But yeah, I think you you signed this guy, you gave him the contract, you know, how he's portraying himself in that locker room. I think it's going to translate on the field quite well. And we're gonna see a lot of shots from uh Pete Alonso this year. Hopefully a couple off that new giant under armor cleat uh left field. So we'll see.

SPEAKER_01 26:13

Yeah, a lot of renovations going on, too. And we can talk about that a little bit later, too, if we wanted to. But uh yeah, a lot of crazy stuff going on at Orless. A lot of good crazy stuff, though. Good crazy stuff. A uh a uh uh uh what's it called? Like a jumbotron the size of my college campus. It's insane. It's massive, it's massive. And for those who don't know, I go to an SC. Yeah, exactly. I can see it from my grandma's house.

SPEAKER_03 26:40

I don't even live anywhere near Baltimore City.

SPEAKER_01 26:43

All right, Jake. Gold Glove, who we like here? I'll let you start us off in this one.

SPEAKER_03 26:48

Ah, damn. If uh Jordan Westbrook was healthy, I'd say Jordan. But um, since he's not healthy, uh if if Cowser can get a true shot in center field, I think the kid can be a good one. Yeah, I had a true shot in center. Yeah, this year I'm talking about this year. I don't know. See, I'm getting a lot of mixed vibes on how the new regime is looking at Colton. I think can he stick the entire season at in center? Absolutely. I do believe he has that talent. And if he does, which I do think he will, he's got goal goal potential, I think. Lengthy kid, he can run. I mean, tracking could use a little work, but I I think he, I mean, we saw some of the catches he was making last year. I mean, right off the top of my head, you know, the ninth inning in in Chicago, White Sox, robbing the home run. I mean, it stuff like that. And it's hard to, you know, replace a Cedric Mullins type athleticism. Um, and I know you have you know Bradfield in the in the shadows kind of saying, hey, if you can't make these plays, I will. But I do like Kowser this year for uh a nice Orioles gold glove.

SPEAKER_01 27:58

I like it, Jake. Colton Kowser, Orioles Gold Glove. Um, my pick is actually a new Baltimore or Oriole, and that's Blaze Alexander. Uh, I think he's gonna have to have a really, really good glove in order for him to stick on this team. Don't know how good he's gonna be as a as a bat, but um, you got to provide some value as a hitter to this team. And uh with Holiday out and Westburg out, uh, you're gonna have to flash that leather a little bit, Papa. And I think he can.

SPEAKER_04 28:26

Yeah, plenty of opportunities too.

SPEAKER_01 28:28

1000%. I mean, he's a guy too that can play all over the diamond. Like, but obviously he's not playing catcher or first base, but he could he can play second base shortstop infield, and he can play in pretty sure in the outfield. He played in the outfield earlier uh this spring training. So I believe in uh what Blaze Alexander can do, his defensive versatility. That's super important stuff for an Orioles team that doesn't really have a lot of defensive versatility right now. So uh yeah, give me Blaze Alexander to be the Orioles gold glove. All right, most improved slash breakout player, got two more to go uh with this one. I got Kobe Mayo. I'm gonna come out and say it here. I got Kobe Mayo. What that guy showed me in spring training, man, I'm a believer again. Now I've always been a believer, especially after the month of September that Kobe had last year, where he had like an OPS of like 950 and a batting average of 301 that month. Like I was like, all right, this is the Kobe Mayo that you know we expected to see. Um I think that Kobe's gonna continue building on his elite month of September, building on his elite spring training campaign. And you're gonna see the sky ultimately be one of Baltimore's best bats. Now, with that being said, this is my hottest take. And I released an article on this today, you guys should go check it out. I think Kobe Mayo gets traded at the deadline this year. Now that's a conversation for another time, but I think that Kobe Mayo gets traded because he performs so so well that Baltimore sees that his value is at the highest it will ever be at, and they use that to trade for Terek Skubel or for Joe Ryan or for someone to that you know elite starting pitching pedigree. Uh, that's my hot take. But I think Kobe Mayo breaks out this year for Baltimore. He's a 750, 850 OPS guy, hits 20 home runs, drives in 60 to 70 RBIs, and everyone in Berlin is happy with that. Jake?

SPEAKER_03 30:29

Yeah, I mean saying this player's name out loud for you know, uh bounce back, come back, breakout, it's kind of weird, but I have Adley Rutschman. I think everyone is down on Adley right now, especially being the number one overall pick. I'm seeing a lot of rumors and rumblings about uh could have been Bobby Witt and Gunner pairing that shortstop third base would have been crazy. You're right, it would have been crazy, but that's not the pick we made, and I have full confidence in Adley to get back to where he was. I've said this before, and I'll say it again. The Orioles train moves as Adley Rutschman moves. So when Adley's playing well, the Orioles are playing well, and I really think I saw some good things during spring training. It doesn't look like he's trying to hit home runs every at bat, he's taking the ball the opposite way. The barrel is going very smooth, straight, having just spraying the ball everywhere, good contact. I want to see some more walks as well. Um and I think he I think he bounced back. Now, listen, I I'm I get it. We're in an era of baseball where you want every single player you have to hit 35, 40 home runs and 179 RBIs. That's just not realistic with some players, okay? If I at least hitting 15 home runs a year, but he's batting like 300 on base percentage of you know the up upper fours, fives. That is a good that is a caliber player where you're like, yeah, I draft that first overall, and we did. And he has that potential. Things have been not going his way, and it could have been accumulated with just a bunch of how the Orioles have been, you know, doing recent seasons. His injuries have been piling up, trying to play through them, which I commend him for. You don't see a lot of people do that these days. They kind of, you know, I don't I don't want to say it out loud, but they kind of they pussyfoot around. They're like, I gotta get that check. And they're like, Well, I'm not 100%. Adley wasn't 100% last year, but he tried his best to get out there, and I think the stats and his performance wavered. And I I think if he stays healthy, I think a comeback and a bounce back is a great spot for him. And if that does happen, watch out because these birds will be humming.

SPEAKER_01 32:48

You know, I want to believe in Adley so so damn bad, Jake. And from this is a player that when he's healthy, he's clubbing 25, maybe 30 home runs a season. And honestly, speaking of home runs, O Squared Residential Design knocks it out the park with their kitchen and bathroom renovations. Whether you need a restore, replace, or completely remodel, they've got Maryland covered. Check them out at osquaresign.com. That's osquaredesign.com. All right, we're well, we're gonna welcome our guy Justin Lunenfeld into the booth. But first off, we got to switch up Justin and Jake's name because that is not Jake Oren. That's actually Justin Lunenfeld. Bang! There we go. Justin, how are we doing, brother?

SPEAKER_02 33:41

Good. How are you? Thank you guys for having me, man.

SPEAKER_01 33:44

Yes, sir. You're part of the team. Happy to have you back in the booth. Real quick, Justin. I knew you were um kind of on our sideline listening to the first half of the pod. Real quick, if you want to give your MVP Cy Young Rookie of the Year uh candidates for Baltimore, off the top of your head, uh, sir, to the group, and then we'll break down opening day.

SPEAKER_02 34:05

Uh MVP, honestly, Gunnar Henderson. I think this is a prove it year. Um, especially he wants that contract. I mean, this is a prove it year. He needs to continue doing what he has to do. Uh Cy Young, that's if Bradish doesn't get injured, I want to go Kyle Bradish. Like, I really want to go Kyle Bradish, but if Bradish gets injured, injured, injured, I think Zach Efflin. I really think Zach Efflin's Efflin believer. An innings eater. Um, I mean, Chris Bassett's an innings eater too, but Zach Efflin. I mean, he forced the Orioles to put him in that lineup in the fifth spot. He went out against the Yankees, went five innings, seven strikeouts. He looked nasty. Um, so honestly, Zach Efflin, and then what was the third one?

SPEAKER_01 34:53

Uh your rookie of the year.

SPEAKER_02 34:55

Oh, rookie of the year? I think Besaio. Um, yeah. I mean, you know, uh, you can tell you can ask Jake, you can ask Tyler. I don't think there's anyone else in the Orioles that is gonna do better than Besaio as a rookie this year.

SPEAKER_01 35:11

Yeah, I agree. Not I agree with that. Not not hard to argue that. I mean, you can make an argument that Dylan Beavers is gonna have one of those great years, but I mean at the end of the day, you gotta you gotta put all your eggs in the basket of uh the former, you know, top what eight prospect. I think Bessai was the number seventh best prospect in baseball right now. It's either seventh or ninth. Um, not sure off the top of my head, but he's a fantastic player, none the less. But all right, it's time to break down opening day. We are less than 24 hours away. It seems unreal to even think about. Right now, we'd probably be in like the what inning? Game's at 305. You think we'd probably be at the seventh in the top, top of the sixth right now?

SPEAKER_02 35:56

Uh probably the fourth. Probably the fourth and third because the ceremonies and all that.

SPEAKER_03 36:04

315.

SPEAKER_01 36:05

So it starts at like 315. I still think we're in the top of the sixth, maybe top of the fifth.

SPEAKER_03 36:10

I can't have it because we're gonna score 35 runs in the first three innings. That's gonna take at least two hours.

SPEAKER_01 36:15

All right. Well, since you already think we're gonna score 35 runs, give us your predictions for tomorrow, Jake. Chevron Rogers versus Joe Ryan. Who drives in the first RBI? Who hits the first home run if there is a home run? Who has a big play? Who looks the best? Break it down for us, Jake.

SPEAKER_03 36:30

Yeah, I have uh I have Taylor Ward hitting the first shot, first RBI. Leadoff dinger? Uh well, I do the leadoff. I'm not, you know what? As I like to say, I have some pretty, pretty fond Orioles knowledge. Um, I'm actually I really can't point a finger of where uh Albi is gonna put this lineup. I think there could be so many different directions that he can go, which is a good thing, but I I really don't know who's gonna be. I mean, Taylor Ward slots in there. I I mean, you know, Gunner's done it, Holiday's done it, although he's not gonna be there for opening day. You know, Colton's hidden leadoff spots, Adley. So there's so many options you can do. Shit, throw Pete in there. I don't give a shit. Pete up the leadoff spot. Yeah, that would throw everybody off. Um, I mean the Dodgers do it with Shohei. So I do think Taylor's gonna make the first big uh big splash here. Um, not a lot of people talk about Taylor Ward this year as an acquisition. A lot of people talking about, you know, Pete and the pitching, the bullpen, Gunner. People are sleeping on my boy T Ward. So watch out for him. I think O's wins six to one. Trevor Shoves to the seventh, and I think it's a pretty easy uh opening day. A lot of people don't know this. Orioles are one of the best teams on opening day in the past 20 years, roughly about a 63 winning percentage. So let me tell you this. Are we the greatest opening day team of all time? Yes, yes, we are. But I'm gonna say this. But I do not think Tyler O'Neal is hitting a home run this year or an opening day.

SPEAKER_04 38:17

What?

SPEAKER_03 38:18

I think I don't think so. I don't know. Five years in a row, the sports books, everyone's bringing it up now. It's just like I just don't see it. I don't see it, man. And I I do think he starts tomorrow as well.

SPEAKER_01 38:31

I mean, he kind of has to to keep week alive, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 38:34

Yeah, I mean, especially well, I don't I think if Dylan was healthy, I I don't know if he would start, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_01 38:41

Nah, nah, I bet you it would start regardless just to keep it.

SPEAKER_03 38:45

Just because he fucking goes ham on opening day.

SPEAKER_01 38:48

Yeah, yeah. They paid him the big bucks. I mean, you can't can't take him out the lineup for that. But I mean, yeah, that's not a crazy take. I mean, no, I don't think it's crazy either.

SPEAKER_03 38:57

I mean, he's hitting five five straight opening days. I mean, uh, it's it's tough.

SPEAKER_01 39:01

And he looks great in spring, any look great in spring training.

SPEAKER_03 39:04

Yeah, it's kind of hard to struggle for team Canada a little bit, but I mean, I don't really take WBC with a with a grain of salt, man. I it I mean, it is what it is there, but um that's true. Yeah, I I really don't, but I think the O'S Cruz twins suck.

SPEAKER_01 39:21

And that's a fact. All right. I mean, they they're not very good. That's if we lose tomorrow, I I think we will be calling it.

SPEAKER_03 39:30

Is it over? I will be calling off work for Friday, and I will be going around Baltimore City degrading the Orioles. Everyone.

SPEAKER_01 39:41

Is that is that what losing game one of 162 is like?

SPEAKER_03 39:47

Uh that's just kind of my personal personality.

SPEAKER_01 39:50

Because as an Orioles fan, I couldn't tell you the last time we've lost game one. I mean what? Like we could start 30 and oh no, 2022 we won, didn't we? John Me's on the mound. 2021. No, we won that game too, didn't we? I'm lost in the Orioles of all. Well our impeccable 2023 season, we beat the Red Sox. That was fucking awesome.

SPEAKER_03 40:18

Yeah, I only hit two home runs that game. I thought he was gonna go crazy that year.

SPEAKER_01 40:22

No, he didn't hit two home runs. That was last year.

SPEAKER_02 40:25

That was last year.

SPEAKER_03 40:27

Oh, he did, but he did hit one at in Fenway, though. It was one.

SPEAKER_01 40:32

Yes, it was no, he didn't hit a home run on that opening day. No, he didn't. He just went five for five. Oh god. I knew I knew he went crazy. I uh fuck. It's okay. I'm trying to find this. I don't know how to figure this out. Like Orioles Orioles opening day game history.

SPEAKER_02 41:03

What's up? You did say Dylan Beaver's injury. I think he'll be back for tomorrow. I really do. I think and I think he will lead off. I really do.

SPEAKER_03 41:11

That is my thought they were gonna I thought they were gonna slow play him, but that'd be.

SPEAKER_02 41:16

Yeah, I think you'd have Kobe Mayo 9 or Basaio 9. Now, I have a question for you guys. Where do they put wait?

SPEAKER_01 41:24

Hold on. Wait, hold on, hold on, hold on. Uh 2022, they lost to Tampa Bay two to one. I remember that game. That was an absolute shitter of a game.

SPEAKER_03 41:33

I do remember that in Tropicana. I do remember that now.

SPEAKER_01 41:35

Introp. What an awful like opening day place to play. I mean, I do remember like oh my god, that was disastrous, dude. They had Mike Zunino at catcher. That was when Wander Franco was still in the league, and we we went up against Shane McClanahan. That's when all he would do was just murk the Orioles. That guy was a dog when he was healthy. Hoping that he can be healthy this year, but not really. Anyways, what Wander's up to these days? I have no idea what Wander's possibly up to these days. Jail these days. Yeah, most likely dropping the soap somewhere. All right, we gotta wrap this episode up, though. Opening day, Justin. Your opening day predictions like what Jake's was, and I'll finish with mine, then we'll wrap things up.

SPEAKER_02 42:22

I got a 4-2 Orioles, um, and I got Dylan Beavers hitting the first home run. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 42:28

Someone loves Dylan Beavers. So your company's playing tomorrow.

SPEAKER_02 42:32

I'm pretty sure.

SPEAKER_03 42:34

What happens when he doesn't play tomorrow? What do you have to do?

SPEAKER_02 42:36

Listen, listen, I don't know if Taylor Ward plays tomorrow because excuse me? They just had a baby. You don't know that.

SPEAKER_03 42:44

Dylan Beavers and Taylor Ward. No newborn is more important than Oriel. An opening day.

SPEAKER_01 42:50

That is. Four days ago. His base. Oh, four days ago. Yeah. You'll be good.

SPEAKER_02 43:05

So we'll see. I know I saw a report that it was possible he wouldn't play. But uh I hope he does. I hope he does.

SPEAKER_01 43:14

Apparently, there's apparently there's a football player, like a football, like a soccer player named Riyadh Marez, who plays at Manchester City, and his wife's name is Taylor Ward, and they just had a baby.

SPEAKER_03 43:29

Good for them.

SPEAKER_01 43:33

So when he searched that up, that's what came up. So I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_03 43:37

It was earlier this week because he was not at he wasn't at spring training a couple of games, and then he wasn't at practice, which I get, but I mean look, the beautiful thing about it is we're pretty we're pretty healthy, so a lot of depth on this team right now. So I'm not I'm not mad about it. Hopefully Dylan is playing. I think Dylan's gonna have a great year.

SPEAKER_01 43:59

That is one thing that Wanted to get into. I like the bullpen. I like the bullpen. I don't love the bullpen.

SPEAKER_03 44:05

I like the bullpen upside. I don't mind the bullpen. I think there is upside. I think there's a lot of unproven talent that can overperform. And we've seen it happen many times where even the Orioles have done it, where you just go to the trade deadline and like, oh, you just need one more piece. You get an Andrew Miller type, and then have him, you run him to the ground, and that's use him in the playoff run. Look, your bullpen is yes, it's great to have you know all these stars in your bullpen, but look, not everyone is gonna be a superstar. And I I I get it. Look, superstar. A superstar. There are a lot of question marks, and it's just a wait and see for me. I I don't mind it, and I think there's a lot of upside. It could backfire, but that's and I have but I have faith in the organization that they will adjust if this bullpen doesn't pan out the way they're expecting to.

SPEAKER_02 44:56

Jake, are you ready for your Rama Geraldo breakout year? I am telling you, he is going to be great.

SPEAKER_03 45:07

Yeah, a lot of good arms. A lot of good arms, man. We're we'll be fine. We'll be fine.

SPEAKER_01 45:11

Jake, you kind of nailed it on the head, though. There are like a lot of like high upside arms that like could overperform, but if they don't overperform, then like they're just bad.

unknown 45:20

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 45:21

In my opinion. Like Geraldo is a shining example of that, though. It's like if he overperforms, then what? You're looking at a 3-5 ERA with like an 11.5k per nine with like a 35% uh strikeout percentage. But like if he underperforms, he's like a guy that gets DFA'd by the end of April. You know what I mean? And like if he gets DFA'd by the end of April, that means that the bullpen has been playing atrocious. Right. And like you could you could say that for Rico Garcia, Dietrich Ends, like Grant Wolfram. It's like they're just investing in the guys that look good in spring training to overperform. You don't really have a lot of established guys. Yenir Kano's your most established guy, him and Hellsley.

SPEAKER_03 46:06

That's not good.

SPEAKER_01 46:07

And that's not good. Now, do I think Kano can like improve a little bit? Maybe, but I'm not expecting Kano to what mow down what was his streak, like 28 straight batters or something that he had in 2023. Justin, what were you gonna say?

SPEAKER_02 46:21

Um, also I I want to see St. Louis uh Hellesley and not New York Mets Houseley. And we'll see in the first week or two what we get, but if we get New York Mets Hellesley, oh my goodness.

SPEAKER_03 46:39

I can't sleep for weeks now.

SPEAKER_01 46:43

He had a pitch tipping issue. He had a pitch tipping issue, and that's what I'm gonna say. I mean, hopefully, though, if you see Hellsley in general, it means that the Orioles are in the lead going into the ninth inning. So we'll see what happens there. But all right, I'm gonna wrap things up. My Orioles opening day predictions. I think the Fells win nine to one. Uh for the O's for quite some time now. Have been pouring it on on opening day. Um, back-to-back ears, they have scored double digits on opening day. Uh, I think this year they just come up short. Um, but nine to one. T Raj gives me five and two thirds, six strikeouts, no earned runs. Great baseball. Um, what I say, nine to one say nine cyong baseball. I meant to say nine to two. There's gonna be one reliever that fucks it all up and gives up like a two-run homer to like Royce Lewis or Byron B. Tyler Wells. I don't know who it's gonna be now. Maybe it will be Tyler Wells. I don't want it to be Tyler Wells, though. But there will be some reliever that fucks it all up, and I don't know who to say it'll be yet. It can't be Keegan Aken. You know what? It's gonna be a lefty, it's either Wolfram or Dietrich Ends, and I love both of them. I think it's gonna be Wolfram because of all the hype that he's gotten this year. It'll be Wolfram. So Wolfram gives up a two-run homer in the seventh inning to make it like to cut the lead from seven-nothing to seven to two. Actually, all right. Wait, I kind of I kind of take that back because I don't think Joe Ryan's that bad. All right, give me like six to two instead. I think Orioles put up three or four runs on Joe Ryan.

SPEAKER_03 48:22

No, stand on business. You said nine-two. Stand on. All right, fine.

SPEAKER_01 48:28

All right, fine. Nine Joe Ryan's terrible. I just don't want to be mean to Joe Ryan because he's a future Oriole. That's all.

SPEAKER_03 48:35

That's all that's a whole different conversation, isn't it? You can be a conversation at that point.

SPEAKER_01 48:39

It'll be a fantastic day tomorrow. I'm stoked. You're stoked, Jake. I'm stoked. Excited. Justin stoked. Justin, are you going to the game?

SPEAKER_02 48:48

Yeah, I am. And uh, I wanted to say something.

SPEAKER_01 48:50

So I'm the only one who's gonna be. You live 20 minutes away.

SPEAKER_02 48:59

I'm taking my exam at 8 45 in the morning so I can go to the game.

SPEAKER_01 49:03

Alright, be a pick. You live then. You live 20 minutes away. If I live 20 minutes away, I'd go. I'm nine hours away from Camden Yards.

SPEAKER_03 49:14

If everything goes correctly at pickles, Jake's not even gonna be a good one.

SPEAKER_01 49:18

You won't even make it to the game.

SPEAKER_03 49:19

I'm not even making it to the game.

SPEAKER_01 49:20

All right.

SPEAKER_03 49:21

I won't even know we've played.

SPEAKER_01 49:24

All right, over under on uh strikeouts.

SPEAKER_02 49:29

Oh, for Jake?

SPEAKER_01 49:30

Before the game starts. Yeah, over-under strikeouts for Jake. Before the game starts? Six and a half. Sure. Six and a half. Yeah, I was gonna say 12 and a half. I don't mind that line. OC's or what are we doing? OC's. Big boys. The big boys at 8 45 a.m. We're going straight to OC's. Hydration station.

SPEAKER_02 49:53

Can we have can we have um a reel with a counter for Jake? I think that would be great.

SPEAKER_01 49:58

Yeah, yeah. Well, yeah. Actually, yeah, great idea, actually, Jake. You should get on that. Um, real quick. Real quick. Um, breakfast or no breakfast?

SPEAKER_03 50:08

No breakfast. Oh, tomorrow? Breakfast, breakfast, breakfast. Breakfast, fruit loops. Fruit loops. Fruit loops. All right, I like that. Fruit loops. Uh I might do like a bagel or something. A bagel? Everything. Maybe poppy seed.

SPEAKER_01 50:23

Everything's a good choice. Everything's a good choice.

SPEAKER_03 50:25

Everything's good. Poppy seed. It's you know what's really crucial now that we're on that topic, and I've really wanted to say something for a long time. What's that? You know what makes a good bagel?

SPEAKER_01 50:36

It's the way that you say it bagel. How are how do you say it? How do I say like bae? Like you're my bae. Bagel. Bagel?

SPEAKER_03 50:46

It's the perfect um proportion of bread and cream cheese. Yeah. If I get that proportion correctly, the top tier fake.

SPEAKER_01 50:59

I agree. You want to know what I love with a bagel? I've always been a big uh butter and jelly.

SPEAKER_02 51:07

Yes. But if it's butter, you have to have it toasted.

SPEAKER_01 51:10

Yeah, 1000%. All bagels should be toasted. All bagels should be toasted, 1000%. All right, no more bagel talk. Opening day tomorrow, 305. We're gonna post this episode. It'll be out a little bit later. I'll release it today. But um, the day that we're recording this is Wednesday, March 25th. So if you're listening to this on the day of opening day, welcome. We have made it finally. We can enjoy Baltimore Orioles baseball once again, or for lack of better terms, not enjoy it because sometimes it is extremely, extremely hurtful and sad and painful and uh rips the spine out of you, anyways. That's what Baltimore Sports is, but we're dedicated to giving you guys the best Orioles content on the planet. Sorry for the lack of content to start off this week. I, Tyler, have been sick all week. I had like a 101-degree fever and it wouldn't go away for like three days.

SPEAKER_02 52:09

And my chest it was beaver fever, beaver fever, beaver fever fever?

SPEAKER_01 52:15

Maybe I do have a beaver before. Well, can you tell Dylan Beavers to get this massive sharp pain out of my chest? It feels like someone's sticking a knife at me. I don't even know how I'm recording a podcast right now. That shit takes grip, man. I've been struggling. Yeah, Jake's been talking the whole time, though. He's been doing a good job carrying the boats so far. So shout out to Jake for that. But yeah, guys, make sure to follow us on all platforms at Orioles Theory on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube. Actually, we don't have a YouTube. Let's talk about a podcast where you can find all of the Orioles and MLB content. Um, X, TikTok, Instagram, Orioles Theory. You can listen to O's Theory on all platforms, Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast, we got you covered for the whopping price of free ninety-nine. Make sure to check us out there. Uh, but that's gonna do it. Happy opening day. You guys have finally made it. So enjoy this journey on your own. Or if you want to enjoy it with us, we will welcome you guys with open arms. For Tyler Barbaras, Jake Oren, and Justin Lunenfeld. We'll see you guys in the next one. Peace out and go hose. Go hose.