Orioles vs Twins Recap + Previewing the Pirates Series - Ep. 8

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down the Orioles' series loss to the Rangers, but previews their upcoming series against the Pirates. Enjoy!

Transcript

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Yo, yo, yo, what is going on, ladies and gentlemen? Welcome back to another episode of Orioles Theory, your number one podcast and one-stop shop for all things Baltimore Orioles related. From your co-host, Tyler Barbarason, creator of Orioles Theory. Usually I would have Klay Selgin here with me, but unfortunately for him, his power went out last night. So him and his family have been trying to figure out how to get that power back on for uh quite some time now. So sending prayers to uh Clay and his family that they can figure out that that power issue. But it's just me for this one. Just like how I started it back in July of 2024, it was just me recording podcasts. I would write out a script on my computer and I would read it out and I would pause it and then resume. And it was completely different than what I'm doing now. But happy just to be alone in this one and just talk some Orioles baseball uh with you guys. But the objective of today's episode is that I want to dive into the recap between the Orioles and Rangers series. Baltimore obviously lost that series, but they did take game three. Um, and then I also want to dive into Pete Alonzo, the first impression of him, how we think he's been doing so far, how I think he's been doing, and honestly what to expect going forward after his first six games. Then we're gonna wrap it up with a Pittsburgh Pirates preview. We'll see what starting pitchers Pittsburgh is throwing out, see what starting pitchers Baltimore will be throwing out, and then from there, we'll just break down the matchups and how we think Baltimore can get back into that uh series win column. But before I dive into today's sports content, let me give a shout out to our sponsor, O Squared Residential Design. Look, we know what it takes to build a winning team, and O Squared knows what it takes to build winning spaces. They're a woman-owned, family operated company right here in Maryland, specializing in kitchen and bathroom renovations. Whether you're looking to restore, replace, or completely remodel, they deliver excellence in every square inch. Serving homeowners across the state of Maryland, check them out at osquaredesign.com. That's osquaredesign.com. All right, we're gonna dive right into it. The Orioles versus Rangers series, it was one that Baltimore lost two to three. However, they did take game three, a much needed game three. The offense came alive, the offense looked rejuvenated. That's honestly the type of offense that I expected to see in game one, right? Like game one opening day. That's what I expected to see. And it doesn't surprise me that it took a little bit longer for Baltimore's offense to get hot, um, especially because that's you know, Baltimore Orioles to a T. It's like, all right, you know that you have such a great offense, but then you come out flat uh for the first two games, and then game three, you erupt. I mean, that's what they did against Minnesota first two games. They only scored a total of, I want to say, three runs, and then game three, they come out and put up eight. Um, Ranger series was a little bit different. They put up seven runs in in the first two games. Um, but then once again, game three, you come out hot, guns blazon, put up eight runs. So it's and eight runs with a lineup that I thought was substantially weaker than the others that we have put out this season. I mean, Leody Tavares, I was expecting just uh be some normal average hitter, but no, he played a massive role in in Baltimore's win yesterday. Um, so really interesting to see how the offense is kind of ramping up here. Um, the next goal for this team is to find consistency within the offense. Um I don't know what it is. Maybe this team can only win when Trevor Rogers is on the mound, but uh they're gonna get a big test on Friday with Cal Bradish on the mound, see how good he can pitch, see how good the offense can do there. Um, but overall, uh Ranger series, you really wish that you could have taken that game two. And we'll talk about the offense. That game two was so easily winnable. It was one-nothing. You're going up against Jacob de Grom, Pete Alonso hits a solo home run to tie the game. You're like, all right, there's a little bit of life. The next inning, uh, Grant Wolfram gives up two runs, you're down by two, just like that. It's like, man, this bull, like we can't catch a break. Anytime we tie the game, they always extend it because our pitching isn't good, right? And then Gunnar Henderson hits a two RBI double to tie the game up again at three to three, and then immediately after the Rangers take a lead again, and then it's too late for Baltimore to even come back. So it's like this bullpen is an issue, and you kind of notice that slowly in the twin series, you kind of start to get an idea like, all right, Isorial's bullpen could legitimately be pretty, pretty bad. But I think the Rangers series, especially in that game too, having what, six or seven earn runs total? I think it was seven earned runs between your four bullpen arms and Geraldo, Wolfram, Cano, and Nunez, there were seven earn runs total in that game by the bullpen itself. That's concerning. Extremely concerning. Because even if they allow only two runs, right? That's a 3-3 ball game when you're going into extra innings. So seven runs is concerning, but but I tweeted this out and I will um reiterate it again. This bullpen won't be this bad for that long. Yarmildo Geraldo will not be on the team that much longer. Uh, Yanir Kano, I believe he should be sent down. The question is, will he get sent down? He's like one of those guys that, like, yes, he should be sent down, but Mike Elias and the rest of the organization love him, so they're always going to keep him up, even though he should go down. But the fact that Dean Kramer got sent down does give me a little bit of hope that they maybe could send down Cano to get us feedback under him. I mean, he has the service time to go back down, and I don't I think he has like what multiple options remaining. So it's like go back down there, figure out your change up in your sinker, and then come up and be a threat again, you know? Like Cano is gonna is going to be a big part of this bullpen. You need him to look good. But those two guys in Geraldo and Cano, they could be sent down when Kitteridge and Aiken are back healthy. And those are two good bullpen arms in their own right. I mean, Aiken, we all understand the type of pitcher that Aiken is. He's a very up and down, streaky pitcher, but he's a good lefty when you need him to be a good lefty. And with the way that Grant Wolfram is pitching right now, and I'm still unsure about Dietrich Ends, you need a light, not a lights out lefty, but you need a reliable, consistent lefty, and that's what Keegan Aiken is. And then Andrew Kid Kitteridge, excuse me, he's just that veteran presence that is going to come in a game, give you two point, give you two-thirds innings pitch to in a sticky situation, and he'll get you out of it. That's the type of pitcher that the Orioles need more of. So this bullpen right now, I'm not concerned about it. Now, am I upset about it? Yes, but I'm not concerned. I think Anthony Nunez is awesome. I think Ryan Helsley is awesome. I think Rico Garcia is awesome. That's three really good bullpen arms that I think Baltimore has right now. And then Tyler Wells. He's an outlier. Can he figure it out? Grant Wolfram, Dietrich Enns, can they consistently prove, all right, hey, we're we're we're here to stay. We can help you guys win games. You know? Um, am I blanking on any other bullpen arm? I don't think so. I mean, Albert Suarez, he looked great yesterday. He uh gave us three uh innings of what one run ball, I want to say. So great job there by uh big Albert. Right now, the bullpen is in a very good state, too, because of that start that Albert Suarez gave them yesterday against Minnesota in game three, or not the start, but the relief performance that Suarez gave them yesterday. Because it not only preserved the entirety of the bullpen by him taking over for Trevor Rogers to close the game in the seventh, eighth, and ninth, but Baltimore has an off day today. So Baltimore right now is getting two days, their bullpen is getting two full days of rest, and that is ginormous, especially in the series against Pittsburgh, where you know they're at bats are gonna work you, they're gonna take a little bit longer. That's exactly what Baltimore more needed. And do not be surprised if the bullpen health is a big reason as to why they were to win the series this weekend. I'm just saying. Albert Suarez, fantastic uh job by him there. And um, yeah, I don't know. Overall, you're you're you're you're happy to see them win game three, especially in the fashion that that they did. Want to talk about Trevor Rogers here momentarily, excuse me, I was sipping on some water. Trevor Rogers is on that Corbin Burns level of consistently good, or at least he's approaching it, and he's very close. Like I I remember watching Corbin in what 24, and anytime he was on the mound, I felt confident in the Orioles to win. That's how I'm feeling with Trevor Rogers. Anytime Corbin was on the mound, now there were some games when Corbin would go like five innings and give up like three earned runs. But like the year that he was on the team of offense was fantastic. Whereas it's like nowadays, Trevor Rogers, if he goes five innings and gives up three to four earned runs, the Orioles are losing. Like, most likely. It's still early in the season, but like I'd bank on my money that the Orioles would lose. It's impressive how consistently good Trevor Rogers is at just getting quality starts. Like this guy will give you six innings every single outing of one to three run ball. Or no run to three three run ball. He's so consistently good that I would pay him $30 million a year. I would pay him $35 million a year. I would give him 40 or 140 to be the Orioles ace for the next four years. I that is how good Trevor Rogers has been, not just this year, but also last year. And the biggest concern for Trev, I'm actually gonna look at his baseball savant page real quick. His ERA since he since he um since the start of 2024, or his ERA since like he became good, I guess, again in 2025. Excuse me, not 2024, 2025. Um he has like a one set, he has like a 173 ERA. He is ridiculous. Uh he looks fantastic. I want to look at his baseball savant real quick to see if they have it updated this year. Okay. They do. So it's honestly not groundbreaking numbers here. This isn't honestly what I was expecting. I was expecting better. He only has a 15.7% K rate. That doesn't seem right. That'll go up. Hard hit 27. He's in the 77th 77th percentile for hard hit uh percentage. But like here's the thing his pitching, like his advanced numbers, like fastball vila, 13th percentile, chase rate, 28 percentile, uh whiff rate, 37th percentile, walk rate, 41st percentile, barrel percentage, 56 percentile. It's like they're those are all not very good, right? But his off-speed run value is in the in the 96th percentile, his breaking run value, 87th percentile, his pitching run value is in the 89th percentile. Like this is just a good starting pitcher, a very good starting pitcher, and he's throwing his force seam a lot, and his change up a lot. I was honestly expecting him to throw his sweeper a lot more this season. He's only thrown at 13%. Um, I've been I was expecting him to ramp that up a little bit. But overall, I mean, this is just a fantastic pitcher. And I mean, barrel he has a 2.7 barrel percentage. Like, that's ridiculous, man. Over like, overall, I just think Trevor Rogers is such a consistently good pitcher that Baltimore would be foolish to not try and extend him. And if they're gonna try to extend him, they're gonna have to try their hardest. Because this is a guy that could make 30 million if he continues to pitch like this for the remainder of the regular season. And I'm and that's me being so serious. Um if I'm Baltimore, I would give Trevor Rogers four-year 140, 35 million dollars a year to be your ace for the next four. Like, and even if he doesn't become an ace, like let's say he slightly regresses and has like an ERA and like the threes or like the fours or whatever, it's like he would still be a good pitcher because we know that he can just eat innings, right? And that is where value as a pitcher comes in when you can eat innings and when you can be efficient and successful in those innings. Um, I want to flip gears here though onto Pete Alonzo. Mike, time for a series win in Pittsburgh. It's an awesome city. I'll be there for the game on Saturday. Have fun, my friend. Uh, however, Pittsburgh is not an awesome city. Ravens fan here. We don't like Pittsburgh. Uh no, but I'm just joking. I I believe it. It's a nice city. Uh what do they call it? The the the like steel city or the something like that. Uh, anyways, Pete Alonzo, first impressions. I've been very impressed with what I've seen from uh Pete. Um now, now, with that being said, I honestly am quite surprised that he isn't having like the RBI production that I expected him to. But I mean, yes, yesterday there was bases loaded, and he hit a 10 like four mile per hour um like ground out or like line out to the third baseman, and it would have cleared the bases, probably. And it's like, all right, like what the hell? I mean, Pete Alonzo is in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity right now with at 95.5 miles per hour. His hard hit percentage is at 62.5 percent. That's in the 95th percentile. Um, I'm not worried one bit about his his production, like his slugging percentage at a 435. I'll be damned if that doesn't jump up. So I'm not worried about Pete. I think he's been everything that we've expected in more. Um, he's a very, very, very patient hitter. He's been walking at a solid rate, too. Um, that's really all you can ask for. I mean, he has an 11.5% walk walk rate. That's good stuff right there from a power hitter, you know. Like the strikeouts are a little bit concerning. There's a 26.9% strikeout percentage through six games, but it's Pete Alonzo, man. Like, that's the risk you take when you sign a guy that's that's to the pedigree of a slugger that he is, right? Like, you're expecting him to swing and miss, but you're also expecting him to hit home runs off of Jacob de Grom, which is exactly what he did. And by the way, never in a million years would I think that an Orioles player would hit a home run off of Jacob de Grom until Pete Alonzo came to town. Like, I don't think Gunnar's hitting a homer off of de Grom. I don't think Adley or O'Neill or Basaio are hitting a homer off of de Grom. I think Pete Alonzo is the only guy on this team that could have done that. And uh he did it. So very impressed with what I've seen from Pete Alonzo so far. Patient at bats, he's hitting the piss out the baseball, the home runs and the extra base hits, those will come soon. You have to look at, you know, the hard hit rate, the bar, the barrel percentage. Like those are all indicating that he will have that breakthrough soon. And the funniest part is that he's like I'm here talking about how he has how he's not even broken through yet, where he has a 304 batting average and an 820 OPS. Like, if the season ended now and that was Pete Alonzo's stat line, I'd be very okay with that. Now, would I like to see the slugging percentage go up from a what 435? Yeah, I would, but Pete Alonzo is probably gonna rake in the series against Pittsburgh and then all of a sudden has a 520 slug. So very impressed with Pete Alonzo. Would love to hear your guys' thoughts on Pete Alonzo. Um, this is a guy that that just hit so many frickin' home runs, and they will come. Like my one buddy, he was telling me he was like, Tyler, I'm kind of worried, like Pete Alonso's lacking power. I'm like, yeah, he's not gonna lack power when over a three-game stretch he hits like four total home runs. Um, and then you'll see exactly why Baltimore went out and gave him what 35 million dollars a year. Like it'll all make so much more sense. Excuse me, yada yum. But yeah, very impressed with Pete so far, and I'm excited to see how much better he's going to consistently get. Um Pete looked good, hit that hoe, he hit that home run he hit versus the Grom was so impressive if his hands are so quick through the zip. Yeah, I mean, that's it's not every day that someone can pull their hands in, hit a 98 mile per hour fastball on the inside corner and uh drive it 400 feet. You know, that's that's that's Pete Alonso's stuff right there. And um you're you're you're gonna see that starting to happen from like Gunner, right? I mean, Basal just nailed a 95 mile per hour fastball that caught too much of the play and he sent it 440 feet. Basal is another guy that if he gets hot, this offense is gonna put up 12 runs a game. Like, Basal is so is such a good hitter, and the ball just flies off of his bat. Like, if he makes contact, it's either gonna be a pop-up that's gonna go 45,000 feet in the air. It's either gonna be a home run sent over the batter's eye or to the flag court. Like that guy Basal can hit. Another guy that's been hitting well, Taylor Ward. Very impressed with what he's done recently. And I was one of those guys that was like, you know what, keep him out of the leadoff spot. But no, Ward has completely proved me wrong. Same with Dylan Beavers. Not that he's proved me wrong. I've been a Beavers fan for a while now, but he's had a very, very good past couple of games. I would like to see him get some more playing time over a guy like a Tyler O'Neal, for instance. But I just gotta see this team hit more home runs, especially out of the the so-called powerheaders like O'Neal, like Basayo, like Alonzo, um, like Taylor Ward. He doesn't even have a home home run yet. So, but once these start start to come, I'll feel better about the current state of the offense. But um, yeah, gotta hit some home runs. But hey, speaking of home runs, O Squared Residential Design hits it out the park with their kitchen and bathroom renovations. Whether you need to restore, replace, or completely remodel, they've got Maryland cover. Check them out at osquedesign.com. That's osquaresign.com. It's time to do our Pittsburgh Pirates series preview. And I'm not gonna spend too much time on this. I'm just gonna kind of go over the games, the pitching matchups, um, and then we'll break it down from there. Game one game starting at 4.12 on Friday. If you're Central Time, 312, if you're Pacific time, what is that? 1212 or 112, it's 112. But you got Calibratus versus Mitch Keller. Mitch Keller has dominated against the Orioles in only two starts over his career, 13 innings, 13 strikeouts, 0.69 ERA. This guy torches us. And I am scared. Now, with that being said, how was Mitch Keller in his first start? Mitch Keller in his first start against the New York Mets went six innings, three hits, three strikeouts, zero earned runs. So either Mitch Keller is just gonna be really good this year and he's gonna absolutely kill the Orioles on Friday, or he had a great game in his first start. That means he has to have a bad game in his second start. Anyone picking up on that logic? Anyone like that logic? Overall, Mitch Keller does own the Orioles. I remember like it was a game in like 2023. Yeah, yeah, this was the game I was talking about. May 14th, 2023, um, when he went six innings and picked up like 14 or like 12 strikeouts or something like that. Oh, wait, no, this is what it was. He threw seven scoreless innings with a career high of 13 strikeouts against Baltimore on May 14th, 2023. In 13 total innings against the Orioles, he has just allowed one earned run. So excuse me, I it's not 13 scoreless, but he went seven innings with 13 strikeouts against the Orioles uh three years ago. So hopefully we can get to Mitch Keller in this one. But Pittsburgh's gonna have to get to Kyle Bradish. And I believe that Braddish is gonna have a much better start in this one than he did in game one. Game one, he still even looked fine. Like it's just his his his sinker control and his and he barely threw his slider. I actually gotta see that because I'm actually curious to see how if Kyle Bradish like went away from his slider in that game. And I don't want to spend too much time on this. I got I I gotta wrap things up shortly-ish. But um let's see. Because when Kyle Bradish throws that slider, that's one of his best pitches. And if he doesn't have it going, you know, that's not very good stuff here. Alright. Alright. He threw a slider 40% of the time, so I'm just stupid. Excuse me. Um, maybe he just didn't have control on that slider then. I don't know. Um I love that slider though, man. Like, like, like he has gotta absolutely slam that down batters' throats, and then use that that sinker to to overlay it. So Kyle Bradish, I really do think that he'll have like a six-inning gem on uh Friday. And if he does, I think Baltimore will be in a very good position to win. Um, game two, uh 4.05 p.m. on Saturday, Shane Baz versus Carmen Moldezinski, I want to say his name is. Uh, I'm excited to see Shane Shane Baas go to work again, man. Um I think his first start and how he finished it is go is a good indicator of the type of pitcher that he can be. Um I just want to see him have a lengthy start. Like, I don't need him to have 10 strikeouts and 7.2 innings of work. Like, just give me five innings of scoreless baseball, man. Strike out five, uh, generate some some ground balls, turn some double plays. Like, that's what I want to see out of Boz. I don't need him to be flashy. Now, will he be flashy? Sure, he can he can be flashy, but I don't need him to be. I just need you to not give up any runs and win us baseball games. That's it. Um, Carmen Moldazinski, I don't know a whole lot about. In his first start against the Mets, he went four and one-third, six hits, two earned runs, eight strikeouts. Um 27-year-old pitcher. Um, let's look at his pitch mix. If my app wants to load, he's got uh four seam, splitter, sinker, slider, sweeper, curve. So he throws his four seam 36% of the time, and then his five other pitches, he throws 15% to 9% of the time. So he's a very, very unique pitcher in his own right. His fastball averages 96 miles per hour, so you're gonna have to speed up that bat a little bit. And then he has a lot of pitches that sit in the mid to high 80s. Um, splitter, slider, sweeper, curveball. Also has a sinker, which I guess he uses against like right hand or against left-handed batters. Um, gets him going front door, maybe. Um, so very, very interesting pitch mix from Carmen. Um, hopefully, Baltimore does their homework there. Hopefully, Boz against his old team, I guess. Uh, I believe Shane Baz, right? He got drafted to the Pirates, right? Yeah, yeah. He was in the uh Chris Archer deal. All right, I wanted to make sure I wasn't stupid. So Shane Boz against the team that uh traded him away. Uh we'll have an opportunity to go out there and uh cook up on him. So that'll be fun. And then game three, Chris Bassett. It's another go-around uh against Braxton Ashcraft. That game is at 1.35 p.m. on uh Sunday. Uh Ashcraft this season uh had a very, very, very good start against Cincinnati on Monday. Six innings, four hits, two earned runs, uh, three strikeouts. Did walk four batters, though. So uh maybe this is a guy that lacks some control, maybe. And um if Baltimore can can can get to him, that would be that would be fantastic. He was known last season for walking guys. He had a 40 he had an 8.2% walk rate in the 44th percentile. So this could be a guy that can maybe walk a lot of batters, generate some base runners, and all of a sudden, it just it just takes one swing for the Sorials team to take the lead. Um, so some I would say some favorable pitching matchups for Baltimore this weekend. Um, and the bullpen is fresher, healthier. Uh Braddish Boss Bassett, the the killer bees. I just came up with that. The killer bees, Braddish Boz, and Bassett. Let's see if those three guys can all pitch gems. If the Orioles swept, that would be awesome. You get to six and three heading into a favorable series against the White Sox, that would be fantastic, but not getting my expectations high at all. All I would like is a series win. That's all I'm asking for. Give me a series win this series, White Sox series win, Giants series win. Can you stack three series wins in a row? Because if you do, all of a sudden, you're six and three, and then, or you're not six and three, you're nine and six. You're looking good. That'd be fantastic. So that's where I'm at right now with the Orioles. I'm gonna wrap things up. Thank you guys for tuning in to today's live stream, or if you're listening in podcast version, thank you for listening to Orioles Theory. You guys can listen to us on all platforms Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. We got you covered for the whopping price of free 99. Yes, I said free 99. Once again, thank you to our sponsors, O Squared Residential Design. Make sure to go check them out if you need any sort of flooring or tiling or any of that good stuff in the state of Maryland. O Squared got you covered. Once again, thank you guys for tuning into today's episode. Make sure to follow us on all platforms at Oriol's Theory. And uh, I'll see you guys in the next one. Peace out and go O's.